| PRE-OPERATIONAL MODELLING IN THE SEAS OF EUROPE | ||
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Abstract | ||
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Operational modelling in shelf seas generally involves numerical model forecasting of
likely future conditions e.g. for tides, surges, waves, ice or nuisance blooms. It also
involves hindcasting conditions in the past - this is important in understanding long
term trends associated with climate change or man's intervention. Pre-operational
modelling effectively implies the preliminary phase of model development and
construction of a related observational network against which to verify the model or
successively up-date starting conditions (as in day-to-day weather forecasting).
Such forecasting capabilities have been developed more or less independently in each European country. However the models are broadly similar and often share inputs from various atmospheric models (e.g. sea-surface | wind fields). Moreover, as the scope and extent of these models grow the overlaps become evident and the high cost of observations makes rationalising of both models and observations imperative. The PROMISE programme aimed to expedite this rationalisation process by intercomparing models and sharing existing observational datasets between 11 partners (3 German, 2 Dutch, 2 Belgian, 1 French, 1 Norwegian, 1 Spanish, and 1 UK). Three coastal regions within the North Sea were selected as appropriate foci, with an exposed Spanish coast used to provide contrast. The scope of the models was limited to dynamics of tides, waves and associated turbulence intensities and the impacts of these on sediment erosion and transport. Formalised methodologies were developed for exchanging observational data sets and model codes. New approaches |
were introduced for assembling and disseminating these data sets to ensure
ready-access and worldwide. Likewise generic versions of the models were
formulated, documented and made widely available.
Conservation and sustainable exploitation of our coastlines is essential both for wealth creation and quality of life in Europe. The associated management strategies require objective scientific guidelines that will be derived from generic models alongside observations coordinated on a European scale. PROMISE has provided a firm basis for the above within Europe and has helped to shape similar planning on a Global scale via joint workshops etc. with the GOOS (Global Ocean Observing System) community. D. Prandle, Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory |
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Last updated: 9th September 1999. Please send comments to A.Lane@pol.ac.uk | ||