PRE-OPERATIONAL MODELLING IN THE SEAS OF EUROPE
The PROMISE Project

3. Milestones and Deliverables

The deliverables from this proposal are closely aligned to the specifications for 'Strategic Marine Research' stated in the MAST III guidance information. Specifically the present study will further develop and rationalise existing links between: operational models (storm surge, surface wave etc.), monitoring networks and data centres. This development will then provide the necessary input, on scientifically integrated European basis, to allow government agencies to harmonise model developments for broader policy requirements and, likewise, to further develop long term strategic monitoring networks.

The associated research tasks overlap closely with those specified for II.1 'Coastal & Shelf Sea Research' in both area 1 'Coastal Processes and Morphodynamics' and area 3 'Methods of Monitoring, Forecasting and Management'.

Specific deliverables from the present proposal in relation to tidal, storm, surface wave and sediment suspensions include:

  1. synthesis and dissemination of data from large scale experiments
  2. validation, development and rationalisation of existing pre-operational models against the above
  3. collection, synthesis and dissemination of comprehensive data sets from four contrasting coastal sites
  4. development and statistical evaluation of model performance against iii. including quantification of interaction effects
  5. extrapolation of site-specific model simulations to indicate shelf-wide circulation to provide indications of
medium/long-term cumulative effects and to indicate those coastal areas likely to be particularly sensitive to aspects of climate change

Within the three year time-frame, this study will be primarily concerned with inorganic sediments. The models can indicate areas susceptible to rapid change (v. above) and while simulation of bathymetric evolution is considered somewhat premature, correspondence will be sought between observed sequences of coastal retreat and records of deposition retained in sediment cores. The data sets referred to should act as bench-mark tests for modelling development beyond both the participation and time frame of this programme.


4. Benefits

Successive publications of the North Sea Quality Status Report (1984 Bremen, 1987 London, 1993 Esjberg) detail the requirements for accurate dynamic models for use in developing policy and shelf seas.

The North Sea is perhaps the most extensively studied shallow sea worldwide, moreover its locality impresses the need for integrated European management.

Management of topics such as waste disposal, fisheries, real-time flood/oil spill/ship routing forecasting require better prediction of both vertical and horizontal mixing processes. However the present-day accuracy of such predictions are obscured by the proliferation of models of diverse origins and models of operation. Rationalisation of this problem should: i. reduce the range of variability in modelling simulations and improve the confidence levels therein, ii. highlight real uncertainties involved, iii. focus resources on the most sensitive components required to improve models.

5. Economic, Social & Technical Benefits

This programme will develop a monitoring and modelling strategy necessary to underpin the long term goal associated with MAST III of providing a European focus for management of coastal seas.

In particular it advances the methodology required for addressing on a European scale concerns about coastal zone protection and the related issue of global climate change.

It lays the foundations for medium to long-term prediction of coastal zone evolution and thereby to sustainable use of the coastal and shelf sea environments.


Last updated: 10th May 1996. Please send comments to A.Lane@pol.ac.uk