PRE-OPERATIONAL MODELLING IN THE SEAS OF EUROPE
The PROMISE Project

1. Objectives

Pre-amble
 Pre-operational models are routinely used to supply information in statistical or time-series format pertaining to specific locations and time intervals for policy development, management options, engineering designs and in associated scientific research studies. While fully operational models are required for real-time forecasts of flood levels, oil spill tracks, ship routing etc., the analogous predominant importance of real-time forecasting which exists in meteorology is unlikely to follow in oceanography. However, pre-operational modelling in oceanography does share the analogous need for internationally organised monitoring and communications networks and for rationalisation of the range of models used.

The project is specifically oriented on the coupling of different physical processes on different space-time scales, rather than on the detailed investigation of partial processes. With special attention on the atmospheric forcing it aims at coupling of:

  • tidal and storm surges
  • surface gravity waves
  • turbulence
  • currents
  • erosion and settling of bottom material

Such coupling will improve basic understanding of these processes, thereby prediction models and subsequently management effectiveness.

Primary objectives
 To optimise the application of existing pre-operational dynamical models of the North Sea presently towards the focus of quantifying the rates and scales of exchange of sediment between the coast and the near-shore zone but ultimately for broader management applications.

Sub tasks
 Observations
To assemble four comprehensive observational data sets relating to the dynamics (tide, storm, turbulence and wave) and associated sedimentary processes in four coastal sites with differing forcing and sedimentary regimes. These data to include synoptic measurements from: air-borne and satellite imagery, in-situ and sea-borne sensors and surveys of morphology and surficial sediments. These data sets to form bench tests for assessing model performance directly within this programme and more widely following subsequent dissemination.

Pre-operational models
To rationalise the application of existing pre-operational tidal, storm, turbulence and wave models and to develop methodology for cross-spectral interactions between these, focused on shallow coastal zones. To inter-compare the results of such simulations and determine the dependency on the associated numerics, resolution and range of processes incorporated.

North Sea sediment budget
To use the dynamical output from the above models to operate suspended sediment models for the three North Sea coastal regimes and intercompare results and their relationships to the methodology involved. To extrapolate these simulations to estimate fluxes throughout the North Sea.

Management of European seas
To establish a working framework between major national centres to form the basis for future European-Scale 'pre-operational' modelling and monitoring programmes for medium to long-term management of coastal seas.

The present programme concentrates on North Sea

applications, exploiting the high level of development of both existing pre-operational models and monitoring networks for this region. Application to other seas should naturally follow subsequently, likewise for application beyond the present focus on sediment dynamics.

Scientific questions
 In addition to the more technical objectives outlined, the following underlying scientific questions will be addressed:

  1. the fundamental limitations to predictability in shelf seas dictated by the level of development of atmospheric models/observations

  2. the limitations to model development associated with available computing resources that determine temporal and spatial resolution

  3. corresponding limitations arising from inaccuracy in process algorithms

  4. techniques/difficulties for up-scaling and down-scaling in particular, the transformation from spectral to time-series representations of surface waves and 'bulk formulae' for sediment erosion/deposition

  5. while the interactions of interest here require maximum exploitation of available computer resources to enhance resolution, the question of acceptable compromises/approximations to allow more widely accessible Work Station compatible versions of the models developed will be examined

Last updated: 10th May 1996. Please send comments to A.Lane@pol.ac.uk