PRE-OPERATIONAL MODELLING IN THE SEAS OF EUROPE
The PROMISE Project

7. Partnership

The Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory

Mike Blackley, Drs. Roger Flather, David Prandle
Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory,
Bidston Observatory,
Birkenhead, L43 7RA, UK

7.1 Role and Contribution
 The POL initiated and has been continuously involved in both the development and application of the North Sea tide and storm surge operational model (run routinely in conjunction with the UK Meteorological Office). The POL was a member of the WAM (Wave Modelling) group from 1988 - 1994 and is presently involved in assessing the effect of incorporating wave-current interactions into the operational surge prediction model.

The POL acted as host laboratory for NERC's UK North Sea Project 1987-1992. This £15 million project involved co-ordination of some 100 scientists at 12 institutes, with studies including regular surveys, observational integrated modelling and specific process studies.

The POL is co-ordinating the Holderness Coastal Study as part of the UK LOIS project. This study includes a wide range of instrumentation deployed in-situ ship-borne and from aircraft together with coastal radar and satellite remote sensing. This Study involves some 20 scientists at 8 institutes and aims to relate coastal erosion to prevailing dynamical conditions.

POL's specific interests in this project are:

  1. to develop operational wave and tide and surge models for application in shallow near-shore areas with particular interest in the effects of interaction on extreme conditions
  1. to combine the above (in a pre-operational mode) to develop turbulence and SPM models in similar regions to relate sediment concentrations and net fluxes to dynamical forcing
  2. to progress operational and pre-operational models on a European Scale, involving the development of the appropriate monitoring network required to interface with remote sensing to enable assimilation techniques to be used optimally to improve predictions.

7.2 Personnel
 Mike Blackley: Project Manager, North Sea Project 1987-1992. Project Manager, LOIS, SES Project 1993-1997

Roger Flather:

David Prandle: Physical Oceanographer, 25 years experience approximately 100 published papers on modelling, observational and theoretical aspects of: tides and surge dynamics, residual circulation, tracer (temperature, 137Cs, SPM) distributions etc. Sabbatical and study visits to USA, Canada, Australia, Japan, China and Korea. Member of LOIS (RACS) committee, NSTF drafting panel, JGOOS and editorial consultant for ECSS and Recent Advances in Fluid Mechanics.

7.3 Policy of Institution
 Research into the dynamics of shelf and slope seas and all aspects of sea level disturbances are primary foci for the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory.

7.4 Exploitation
 It is intended that the results of this proposed project will be published in the open scientific literature in accordance with the Natural Environment Research Council's usual policy and practice.

Publications (recent examples)

Prandle, D. & Beechey, J. 1991. Marine dispersion of caesium 137 released from Sellafield and Chernobyl. Geophysical Research Letters, 18, 1723-1726.

Prandle, D. 1991. A new view of near-shore dynamics based on observations from HF radar. Progress in Oceanography, 27, 403-438.

Prandle, D. (Ed.) 1992. Dynamics and exchanges in estuaries and the coastal zone. Washington, D.C.: American Geophysical Union. 647pp. (Coastal and Estuarine Studies 40).

Prandle, D., Jago, C.F., Jones, S.E., Purdie, D.A. & Tappin, A. 1993. The influence of horizontal circulation on the supply and distribution of tracers. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, A, 343(1669), 405-421.

Prandle, D. 1994. Radio-nuclides as indicators of dispersion pathways in shelf seas and in estuarine sediments. pp. 461-485 in, Low level measurements of radioactivity in the environment: techniques and applications. Proceedings of the Third International Summer School, Huelva, Spain, September 20 - October 2, 1993, (ed. M. Garcia-Leon & R. Garcia-Tenorio). Singapore: World Scientific. 563pp.


8. Exploitation Plans

The timeliness of this project is related to:

  1. established success of existing pre-operational models
  2. expansion of computing facilities allowing cross-spectral simulations (waves and tides etc.).
  3. enhanced specifications of remote-sensing instruments and scheduled launch of new satellites SEAWIFS, ERS-2
  4. development of in-situ SPM sensors

Success in achieving the present objectives is dependent on:

  1. optimal pooling of fieldwork resources to obtain comprehensive synoptic data sets,
  2. extensive inter-comparison of model simulations over a range of regimes to enhance the robustness of the algorithms involved and
  3. establishment of a European network for modelling/monitoring co-ordination.
While a three year time-span limits the objectives to North Sea applications, the datasets, modelling procedures and organisational framework should provide a basis for expansion to the full European community.

An integral aim is to provide recommendations of how operational oceanography needs to be organised on a European scale - i.e. a major objective of the MAST programme.


9. Ongoing Projects and Previous Proposals

The development of wave models within this project will be closely linked to the MAST II ECAWOM project and likewise to the interests of the WISE group. The monitoring/ remote sensing interest will be related to developments in the MAST II SCAWVEX project. The field work components will make use of and operate in parallel with the development of new instrumentation and platforms. Indeed, a major impetus for this project arises from the new availability and early success of instruments such as the CASI, ADCP, ABS, the latter used in conjunction with the development of the PMP (POL monitoring platform) which has shown itself capable of operating in the sub-tidal/

inter-tidal zone under severe storm conditions. A related objective of this programme is to advance the design specifications for a standardised in-situ instrumental sea-bed platform that can be universally deployed to provide the necessary calibrations and vertical profiles to allow assimilation of satellite remote sensing into operational models (as anticipated by GOOS). Opportunities to deploy this standardised instrumental platform as part of other EEC field-work experiments will be sought together with associated air-borne sensing, such additional data will help in establishing the robustness of the associated interpretive algorithms.

A closely related MAST III technology proposal will be concerned with development of in-situ sensors for determining SPM concentrations. The field-work component of this proposal will be encompassed within and will be complimentary to PROMISE.

Aspects of the fieldwork proposed could usefully overlap with proposals such as PROVESS and, likewise output from the associated modelling could be used by such parallel studies. Likewise development of new algorithms (e.g. associated with turbulence profiles in PROVESS) from such studies will be incorporated wherever possible.


Last updated: 10th May 1996. Please send comments to A.Lane@pol.ac.uk