PRE-OPERATIONAL MODELLING IN THE SEAS OF EUROPE

Introduction

Pre-operational oceanography needs internationally organised monitoring and communications networks, and rationalisation of the range of models used. PROMISE comprises a group of leading European organisations addressing these requirements via a user community and wider initiatives such as EUROGOOS (European Global Ocean Observing System).

Objectives

To develop a framework for application of existing pre-operational dynamical models of the North Sea. The goal of quantifying the rates and scales of exchange of sediment between the coast and the near-shore zone provides the focus. This framework can be used for subsequent application to other coastal areas and for broader management applications.

Tasks

O
Assemble comprehensive data sets
R
Rationalise pre-operational hydrodynamic models, define infrastructure required for management application
W
Development of wave models for application in shallow water
S
Development of models for turbulence and suspended particulate material (SPM) prediction

Task O   Assemble comprehensive data sets
Disseminate data from ZISCH, North Sea Project, Holderness, Spanish Coast, Wadden Sea, French Coast.


Figure 1. Schematic diagram of Holderness Coastal Experiment


Figure 2. Locations of coastal study areas and boundaries of nested wave models.

Task R   Rationalise pre-operational hydrodynamic models
Operational oceanography - existing systems
Pre-operational models are routinely used to supply information in statistical or time-series format pertaining to specific locations and time intervals for: policy development, management options, engineering designs and in associated scientific research studies. Fully operational models are required for real-time forecasts of flood levels, ship routing and the operation of storm-surge barriers.


Figure 3. Effects of different wind forcing. Computed current speeds (surface and bottom), for Holderness station N2.

Validation and incorporation of data assimilation techniques into existing pre-operational models will be a major step in the development of fully operational models.

Assimilation


Figure 4. Upgrading the model of SPM transport.
Top: PROMISE 3D SPM transport model (curvilinear grid), SPM concentration in top layer;
Middle: NOAA/AVHRR reflectance data used for model validation;
Bottom: sensitivity for the sources and sinks determined from Goodness-of-Fit/adjoint analysis

Task W   Development of wave models
WAM-Cycle 4
The WAM spectral wave model is widely used for operational wave forecasting.


Figure 5. WAM model data vs REMRO buoy at Coruña, Spain.

PRO-WAM for shallow water applications
Many enhancements were made to the original WAM-Cycle 4 code for applications in shallow water where high spatial resolution is needed. Figure 6 shows results from simulations based on the three nested grids shown in figure 2.


Figure 6. Significant wave heights for an eight day period including the storm of 1-2 January 1995. Results from the three nested grids and N1 buoy are depicted.

Coupling wave and tide models
The influence of tidal modulation on the wave signal is illustrated in the buoy measurements in figure 6. This influence can be incorporated by a one way coupled run where hydrodynamic information is passed to the wave model. Figure 7 shows how this influence is most evident in wave period. The time evolution of the 1D spectra indicates that the modulations are present in the whole frequency domain.


Figure 7. Observed and modelled (with current interaction) wave spectra at WEH.

Task S   Development of models for turbulence and suspended particulate material (SPM) prediction
A generic turbulence/SPM suspension model developed in PROMISE was evaluated for general application.


Figure 8. Turbulent dissipation rate at site N2 (log10
e in W kg-1), from version 'B' TKE model.



Figure 9.Left: simulation of SPM concentrations off Holderness.
Right: corresponding CASI image (Compact Airborne Spectrographic Imager). Observations by the UK Environment Agency, processed by ARGOSS.



Last updated: 28th February 1999. Please send comments to A.Lane@pol.ac.uk